Transparent public-data method
Freight Cost Index methodology
The FCI is a fixed-weight national index built only from free official US government series. It is not a lane rate, carrier quote, or forecast.
Methodology version 1.0 · Updated
Definition and formula
The baseline is January 2026 = 100. For component i in month t:
Component indexi,t = 100 × (observationi,t ÷ observationi,baseline)
FCIt = Σ (fixed weighti × component indexi,t)
A reading of 108 therefore means the weighted basket is about 8% above the baseline. It does not mean every carrier's costs or freight rates increased 8%.
Historical snapshots begin in January 2025 and remain normalized to the January 2026 baseline, allowing year-over-year comparisons before a full post-baseline year has elapsed.
Components and official sources
| Component | Series ID | Weight | Role | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US on-highway diesel retail priceUS Energy Information Administration | GASDESW | 40% | Operating-cost input | Weekly, averaged to month |
| General freight trucking, long-distance less than truckloadUS Bureau of Labor Statistics | PCU4841224841221 | 30% | Freight-market benchmark | Monthly |
| General freight trucking, truckloadUS Bureau of Labor Statistics | PCU4841214841212 | 15% | Freight-market benchmark | Monthly |
| Transportation and warehousing average hourly earningsUS Bureau of Labor Statistics | CES4300000003 | 15% | Operating-cost input | Monthly |
Interpretation boundary: diesel and wages represent operating-cost inputs. The BLS truckload and LTL producer-price indexes measure national freight-service price pressure. They broaden the market benchmark, but they are not direct cost-accounting categories and never represent a live quote.
Update and validation
The collection workflow runs at 09:17 UTC on the 5th and 20th of each month and publishes monthly periods. The latest successful publication is for July 2026. The last pipeline attempt was .
The pipeline rejects non-positive or missing base observations, duplicate component IDs, invalid weights, stale newest periods, and movements beyond the configured validation ceiling. Source identities and expected title terms are checked before collection.
Failure, revisions, and last known-good data
Existing monthly snapshots are immutable. If a critical source fails, unavailable weight exceeds 33.3%, or a validation gate fails, the workflow keeps the prior published files unchanged and reports the failing source. A permitted non-critical gap is disclosed and the available weights are rebalanced proportionally.
Source revisions never silently rewrite a published base. Later snapshots disclose detected revisions while continuing to use the pinned baseline values.
Methodology version history
Version 1.0, : initial fixed-weight public methodology. A material future formula, source, weight, or normalization change will receive a new version and effective date here; published snapshots and the documentation needed to reproduce them will remain available.
Limitations
The FCI is a national directional benchmark. It does not account for a specific lane, equipment type, insurance program, financing structure, accessorial charge, fuel surcharge contract, tariff, capacity condition, carrier margin, service level, or individual fleet efficiency. Use current quotes and your own cost records for operating decisions.